Plus, there are other problems - the producing countries are increasing domestic consumption, which means exports are falling even faster than production. Many countries turned from exporters to importers recently - when everyone will import, who will be the exporter?
Peak oil is not about running out of oil. It is about reaching a global maximum of production and entering an era of terminal production decline. US oil has peaked this way, Brent has peaked too, why should be the global production different?
Peak oil is about running out of cheap oil - and by switching from old, vast Middle Eastern easily accessible fields that could produce barrel for 5$ or so to sources like deep sea oil that produce from 60$ up, the change will be noticeable.
About shales, tar sands and other sources - the key term here is EROI - energy return on investment. You can get quality, light, sweet crude from tar sands, but you must first heat the material and then refine it - a process that requires energy itself. That means you will end up with smaller net gain. Just for comparison - early large fields had EROI about 100:1, now oil declined to about 20 - 10:1. Tar sands may be as low as 3:1 - that means under current conditions (10:1 oil) you need three more times tar sands produced to get to the same net energy gain as with oil.
Naturally, sources with better EROI are developed first, since they are cheaper, so we end up with badly accessible sources that are expensive to produce.
If you examine past recessions, most of them were precluded by oil price spikes - recently in 2008. Oil price also drives food price higher, and that destabilizes the poorer regions where people are already living in great poverty - that's what's going on in Egypt, Lybia now.
As for hydrogen economy - it's far too wasteful and inefficient to be scaled up. Read here, for example:
http://www.physorg.com/news85074285.html
