Would a collapse of the power grid be doomsday?

By on August 13, 2013 10:18:11 PM from JoeUser Forums JoeUser Forums

Draginol

Join Date 03/2001
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About a year ago, I wrote “The lights go out: What happens if the grid goes down”.  It talked about what would likely happen if the power went out and works through the first 4 weeks.  In short, it’s not a pretty picture.

Doomsday Scenarios

Below are my opinions and just my opinions. They’re based on reading and researching these topics in my spare time out of morbid curiosity.  I define a doomsday scenario as a scenario where the civil society could potentially break down as a result.  The break down of civil society (law and order) would, in turn, activate the “preppers” various bug out / bug in contingency plans.

Scenario #1: Economic Collapse

I consider the likelihood of this happening to be basically zero.  It seems to be the most discussed, most feared scenario I read online. At the risk of alienating preppers right off the bat, I consider this scenario largely baseless.

 

Scenario #2: EMP attack

imageThis is the scenario where someone sets of a powerful electromagnetic pulse that fries the power grid and many low voltage dependent systems.  There is a lot of debate on the level of damage this would do.  My opinion is that any EMP attack worth considering would, at the very least, wreck the power grid for an extended period of time.  However, I don’t think it likely that it’ll take out cars (even modern cars).  While the computer systems in cars are sensitive and a car isn’t a true “faraday cage” I am highly skeptical that an EMP would take out most cars, modern or not.

Nevertheless, an EMP attack would probably cause many millions of people to be without power for an extended period of time.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime I think are pretty low.  If I had to guess, maybe 1 in 100.

Scenario #3: Solar based EMP

imageSometimes called coronal mass ejections, these solar based EMPs could truly wreck our day. We’ve had them before (Carrington Event) which occurred in the 19th century. Had this hit us today, we’d have a huge issue (I’d guess worldwide power outages that could take months to repair).

We had one in 2013 on July 16th…well, almost. It missed us by a solar day.  So this isn’t a question of if, it’s a question of when and how bad.  The electrical grid in most countries is hooked up like an extra fragile Christmas tree.  It would not be inaccurate to describe it as “cobbled” together.  It works but it’s not very robust.  It takes remarkably little to knock out the power for huge swaths of territory.

The odds of this happening in our lifetime are pretty low also. I’d say 1 in 50.

Scenario #4: Cyber based attack

imageThis one worries me quite a bit because few people are aware of it. Some people have heard Stuxnet and other weaponized computer worms that have been used to slow down Iran’s nuclear program.  But few people have given much thought of how vulnerable the United States and other western countries are to this kind of attack. 

In 2003, the Northeast of the United States and Canada went without power for about a week, affecting 45 million people. It was largely caused by a software bug at a single power station in Ohio.  Imagine a malicious attempt to wreck the control systems for the power grid.

The odds of this happening I think are a lot less remote than people think. Probably 1 in 25 in our lifetime.

Why losing power is such a big deal

Overall, I’d say that the odds of something causing a national, extended power outage to be about 1 in 10.  Anyone under 50 probably has no experience of just how recent electrical power actually is.  A century ago, most people didn’t have electricity and even 75 years ago, it was considered pretty flaky.  Yet, today, we are totally and completely dependent on it.

Let’s walk through a few of the things that would happen if we lost electrical power for an extended period of time.

  1. Our logistics system would be trashed.  We are now very dependent on “Just in time” infrastructure. That is, we don’t keep huge warehouses anymore. We deliver things just as needed to maximize efficiency.  To put things into perspective, you could cripple our economy just by wiping out the computers at Fed Ex and UPS. 
  2. Little food. Your local supermarket relies on daily inventory replenishment. Even if the trucks and trains and such are still running, the ability to deliver food would be severely disrupted. 
  3. No gas. Our capacity to refine, deliver and distribute gasoline would be curtailed dramatically. So while I don’t personally think there’s a realistic scenario where your cars and such would be directly affected by a viable doomsday scenario, your ability to drive might not last very long.
  4. No money. How much cash do you keep on hand? No power, no credit card processing.  Let’s focus on this a second. Next time you’re out doing something, consider what would happen if you no longer had the ability to use a credit/debit card but instead had to rely purely on the cash on hand. How would that work out for you? Imagine a cyber attack that disrupted the merchant account services sector and nothing else. What about ATMs? Nope, they’re down.  How about going to a teller? No power, they can’t tell you how much you’ve got in the bank. I think we’d be able to quickly adapt (i.e. write things down, as long as you have an ID, but it would slow things to a crawl).
  5. Water. Water is something I think we would probably do okay with. We’d soon run out of running water but barring a truly worst case scenario, this is one area I think the government could help large %’s of the population with (distributing water). But if you’re in a more rural area, it would get sticky and our ability to produce and deliver food would still become a huge problem.  I’m just saying I don’t think water would be the “SHTF” trigger in a likely doomsday scenario. At least, as long as the government is up and running and can coordinate with local producers/distributors of bottled water.
  6. Habitation. God forbid that this happen in the Winter.  Natural gas would likely flow for a long while but you wouldn’t be able to do much with it if there’s no electricity. Similarly, our ability to store food (no refrigeration) would be reduced.
  7. Communication.  Our ability to communicate would drop to nill. I think much of the Internet, powered through extensive backup systems (depending on the severity, a really powerful EMP might wreck the ability of natural gas based backup systems to function) would be ok.  But our ability to connect to it would be greatly reduced. I’m not confident my local cell tower or Comcast would be up for the duration.

There’s probably more I am not thinking of here. In, fact, I’m sure there are.  Moreover, the severity of the points above really are dependent on how resources/handy you are. The big question though is how long would modern civil society be able to last without electricity?  How habitable is a modern American city without electricity? Would/could order be maintained?

The big assumption I make here is that our vehicles would still work.  I can envision EMP based catastrophes that are bad enough to fry most cars. My problem with those scenarios is that they’re about as likely as us being hit by a extinction level asteroid/comet or a mega volcano or a super plague at which point, all bets are off.

No, to me, the big question would be maintaining civil society.

The thin veneer of civilization

For the purposes of our discussion, things don’t really “hit the fan” until civil society breaks down. In my opinion, the most likely trigger for that would be lack of food.

I have a high confidence in our government’s ability to obtain and deliver water for a long period of time.  I also believe that state and local authorities could obtain and distribute food for an extended period of time – a month for instance. But without our modern logistics system up and running, after a month, food shortages would become very serious. 

There have been many documentaries on how our food is produced now (manufactured is probably more accurate). It’s a very complex industrial process with a lot of moving parts.  It’s not like we would stop producing any food at all.  But our ability to feed 300+ million people daily rests on our modern manufacturing and logistics system which is dependent on electricity.

So for me, the big question is, how long, without electricity, would most people be able to obtain enough food to feed themselves and their families.  Once the ability to obtain food without violence disappears, so too does civil society.

So what do you think? Share your thoughts in the comments.

Also:

Check out the Ultimate Bug out Vehicle.

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August 12, 2013 7:02:43 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

So for me, the big question is, how long, without electricity, would most people be able to obtain enough food to feed themselves and their families.

About 2 weeks ...

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August 12, 2013 7:09:58 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting Jafo,

So for me, the big question is, how long, without electricity, would most people be able to obtain enough food to feed themselves and their families.


About 2 weeks ...

That's a shame, I've always been taught to have at least a 3 month supply of food and water. But I grew up in Cali, where earthquakes could knock out the grid for at least that amount of time. I know my parents have enough food to feed 30 people 1 year in their house. Thus, themselves for roughly 2 years. (mostly canned foods (and yes we have manual can openners and lantern supply for at least 3 months of good light, probably stretch that for 6 months as well.

Unfortunately, I would say that food stocks would last people probably 1 month (tops). Although I think 2 weeks seems more reasonable for people.

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August 12, 2013 7:19:41 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Probably a good portion of people would lose it when they couldn't charge their iPhones.

 

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August 13, 2013 12:57:59 AM from GalCiv II Forums GalCiv II Forums

My big concern is the loss of knowledge and data. While the possible collapse of civilization and the loss of life may be tragic and all, it would also be tragic to lose a great wealth of knowledge that enables our civilization to work. Imagine trying to reinvent the computer, or losing all progress in medicine in the last few decades. It think it would hurt. Once we stabilized again, not only would we have to repair things, we would have to figure things out again that we once knew. When the Roman Empire collapsed, a lot of knowledge was forgotten for quite some time (and some of it is still lost).

Also, as for backup, are there good options for non magnetic storage, and if so, how often is it used? Even if you were successful in backing up such data on non magnetic mediums, would technology that could read them still work? Add to the problem, there seems to be entire industries designed to combat piracy. Would technology in a few decades be even easy to understand or figure out by those without special education or manuals?

Edit: I don't mean to sound uncaring about the loss of human life (I'm not sure if I do). I feel that knowledge plays a major role in the good that we as a civilization can do. Losing decades of knowledge will push back all the good we able to do by the same amount.

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August 13, 2013 1:55:09 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting parrottmath,

 I know my parents have enough food to feed 30 people 1 year in their house. Thus, themselves for roughly 2 years.

How does '30 people for 1 year'convert to 'roughly 2 years' for themselves?

Making the rough assumption that you have 2 parents, What lasts 30 people 1 year should last 2 people what, 15 years?

Either way, on that note, holy crap! How many cans is that? Are you sure about that number? If we're talking rather light rations, say 1 can per day person. 1 Can * 30 People * 365 Days = 10,950 Cans?!?!?

Do your parents have a small warehouse of food or something?

 

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August 13, 2013 2:01:34 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

I live in Sweden, almost nobody uses cash (as in, of the 100 people I frequently talk with 0 use cash). I think the most pressing thing for us Swedes, if power went out, would be having our access to cash through our credit cards wiped out. In a few days no power would mean people would need to start looting food stores for the non-refridgerated goods. After that, as the stores wouldn't be restocked (no motors = no deliveries) I guess exodus from the cities and destruction of all livestock would happen within the month. I don't think there will ever be time to set up some kind of bartering system. Guns are outlawed here so the people who owns the food would have no way to defend themselves against mobs.

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August 13, 2013 7:12:49 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

How fast necessities run out will depend a lot on where you live and if the problem is localized, nationwide, or global.

Being able to get some kind of help from somewhere else is going to make a huge difference.  It is pretty hard to knock out the entire country, unless of course the whole world is affected.  Assuming it is the whole world.....the biggest cities are probably going to have looting and anarchy within days, well before people actually deplete canned and dry food.

A city like Los Angeles is going to really suffer because everything is brought in... the water is pumped in via aqueducts.  I am not certain that water could be distributed from the local reservoirs without power.  Even IF the port could be used to bring in relief from somewhere unaffected, it would be hard to distribute it without the infrastructure to unload cargo ships and transport goods across the urban sprawl.  Many will be looking for water and food within the first week, and while some will have adequate food supplies to last months, a majority of the population would probably descend into anarchy within days due to fear of starvation.....it would probably take a few weeks for most of the food to be depleted.

Anyone living in a town on a river near farmland COULD be able to last long enough for the community to boot-strap itself into limited self sufficiency.  It is hard to say how many months it would take to achieve, but with fresh water and local agriculture, and without the pressures of rioting hordes of starving urban dwellers, they shouldn't have a problem.  The only question is will society function in these places when the starving refugees from the cities start showing up after a few days.

Thinking about a post apocalyptic survival game again?

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August 13, 2013 8:37:13 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Hehe, yeap, we'd be in a hurt.  I can last a month with food and water.  But thats not the problem.  The inner citys would run out fast and the riots would spill over and start moving outward.  The looting and killing will be running wild(for food and water).  How would you defend yourself and what you have will be the problem.  Yeah, a doomsday senerio.  One person can't last forever.  You would need to band together to survive.

Think about the drug gangs in east LA.  They would shift from drugs to food and water, and they are already armed to the teeth.

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August 13, 2013 5:55:33 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Well, I am one for thinking that it's not going to happen, for reasons I won't explain here, not because they are not valid, but because a lot of people wouldn't believe the efficacy in them.

Remember, what you focus on is what you tend to get, so focus on love and acceptance and not fear.  Note it is a Fact that you make your own luck by focusing on positive stuff, look what Brad has achieved over the last 20 years.

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August 13, 2013 6:54:17 PM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting StevenAus,

Well, I am one for thinking that it's not going to happen, for reasons I won't explain here, not because they are not valid, but because a lot of people wouldn't believe the efficacy in them.

Remember, what you focus on is what you tend to get, so focus on love and acceptance and not fear.  Note it is a Fact that you make your own luck by focusing on positive stuff, look what Brad has achieved over the last 20 years.

While I won't argue that postive thinking can improve ones life, the power of happy thoughts isn't going to stop a high altitude nuclear detonation nor one of those coronal ejaculation thingies from the sun. 

There's a lot that can be done down here on earth in terms of controlling nuclear materials, so hopefully things remain alright on that front for a while, but not a hell of a lot we can do for the sun thing. If the Earths orbit puts it in the wrong place at the wrong time, we're kind of fucked.

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August 13, 2013 7:19:10 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Well, did you ever think that with all the bad things that COULD happen, how few of them actually have, and the ones that have had had some consolation in them?  That's what I think when I hear about bad things that could happen.  Why worry about things that will probably never happen or that we can't do anything about, when we can focus on the Now and enjoy the time we have to the fullest extent of joy, love and compassion for ourselves and others?

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August 13, 2013 10:33:54 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting StevenAus,

Well, I am one for thinking that it's not going to happen, for reasons I won't explain here, not because they are not valid, but because a lot of people wouldn't believe the efficacy in them.

Remember, what you focus on is what you tend to get, so focus on love and acceptance and not fear.  Note it is a Fact that you make your own luck by focusing on positive stuff, look what Brad has achieved over the last 20 years.

How'd that work out for German and Polish Jews in the 1930s? 

Being aware of your surrounding society and the path that it is on, even (or especially) if that path could potentially lead to dark places, is the duty of any adult, even if most of us don't bother with it most of the time. 

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August 13, 2013 10:43:35 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting WOM,

Think about the drug gangs in east LA.  They would shift from drugs to food and water, and they are already armed to the teeth.

Depending upon the time horizon I don't know that it would matter.  Cities would become graveyards in weeks.  Those gangs would not be able to corral a significant amount of food before the population of the city tore through it, even if the gangs were able to kill and collect every day starting day one of the incident and even if there wasn't organized resistance from residents and/or from municipal forces.  Those gangs only hope of really surviving through violence would be to make for the hills and find somewhere to set up shop lording over an existing farming community.  

No major city in the world would survive for very long.  The survivors would all be people in farming country or in remote tourist locations (think of a place where the population fluctuates hugely between tourist season and the rest of the year like Martha's Vineyard or Block Island).  

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August 13, 2013 11:54:36 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

It is a different time from the 1930s, and there are a lot of positive things happening, if you avoid the doom and gloom merchants (the mainstream media).

And worrying about all the worst possible scenarios isn't really beneficial or productive.  If it happens, it happens.  Why reduce one's own happiness today for something that might never happen, and even if it did, there would be nothing one could do about it?  I'm not going to, but what you do is up to you.  The current time is the only thing you can do something about, and if there is a combo of, might never happen, combined with, nothing I can do if it does happen, well, worry is a waste of time, anyway.  Action based on something you can affect is different.

Best wishes to all.

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August 14, 2013 3:15:26 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

Quoting StevenAus,

It is a different time from the 1930s, and there are a lot of positive things happening, if you avoid the doom and gloom merchants (the mainstream media).

And worrying about all the worst possible scenarios isn't really beneficial or productive.  If it happens, it happens.  Why reduce one's own happiness today for something that might never happen, and even if it did, there would be nothing one could do about it?  I'm not going to, but what you do is up to you.  The current time is the only thing you can do something about, and if there is a combo of, might never happen, combined with, nothing I can do if it does happen, well, worry is a waste of time, anyway.  Action based on something you can affect is different.

Best wishes to all.

 

The point was not would it happen, it was just a mental exercise regarding what would happen if the power went out everywhere.  I agree, it is pretty gloomy to think about apocalypse scenarios and global power loss is highly unlikely.  While I certainly don't recommend worrying about these things, we have enough to worry about, you are missing the point.  This is a forum post by a game designer...someone who deals with "what if" speculation... all of these games he makes about futuristic and fantastic civilizations nuking the crap out of each other shouldn't cause one to be alarmed either.  Contemplate and be entertained.

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August 14, 2013 8:16:53 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Quoting StevenAus,

It is a different time from the 1930s, and there are a lot of positive things happening, if you avoid the doom and gloom merchants (the mainstream media).

And worrying about all the worst possible scenarios isn't really beneficial or productive.  If it happens, it happens.  Why reduce one's own happiness today for something that might never happen, and even if it did, there would be nothing one could do about it?  I'm not going to, but what you do is up to you.  The current time is the only thing you can do something about, and if there is a combo of, might never happen, combined with, nothing I can do if it does happen, well, worry is a waste of time, anyway.  Action based on something you can affect is different.

Best wishes to all.

Tell that to Coptic Christians throughout the Middle East right now, or the several million dead tribesmen in the Sudan over the last few decades or the Tutsi's in Rwanda over the 50 years at the end of the 20th century.  

Optimism is commendable, but as a solution to real and serious potential pitfalls in society it fails miserably.  Civil society is an immensely fragile thing.  If we want to enjoy it, and to keep enjoying it, as you say we need to fight for it.  Human nature works against the creation of civil society.  It's only through thousands of years of tradition and technological progress that we've been able to build up an increasingly lawful and civil society. 

Brad's question here, and others like it, are important to help us figure out what incidents could rip society apart and set us back so that we can take action to make sure they don't happen.  

A perfect example local to me would be hurricane Sandy.  No one in a position of responsibility did anything to increase the city's preparedness against hurricanes in roughly the last 50 years even though the frequency and strength of storms hitting this region are trending up.  Worry, in this case, wasn't a waste of time.  NOT worrying about something relatively obvious cost billions of dollars in damage and several hundred deaths.  And that storm DID cause the collapse of civil society, at least locally in certain communities for a few days or weeks. People in some areas were openly carrying shotguns to deter looters from entering their house because areas were cut off from power and government services (police, fire, etc).  They were quite literally on their own for that period of time.

And in the case of this particular idea, Brad's question is one of the big ones.  This scenario isn't small regional unrest caused by a temporary disruption of services like Sandy.  It's the end of civil society.  Discussing it and at least considering the likeliness is a good thing.  It may not be very likely, but it's certainly not more likely just because we've talked about it.  

 

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September 2, 2013 1:03:20 AM from Little Tiny Frogs Forums Little Tiny Frogs Forums

Quoting Kantok,
Tell that to Coptic Christians throughout the Middle East right now, or the several million dead tribesmen in the Sudan over the last few decades or the Tutsi's in Rwanda over the 50 years at the end of the 20th century.  

Well. Yeah. That's why doomsday prepping is largely wasteful fearmongering.

We all need realistic supplies in the event of emergencies. Hurricanes, civil unrest, etc happen every few years or so, and we face power outages and money shortages and food outages due to random f- ups in life as well. Your standard preparedness calls for maybe 2-3 weeks of food and water, and rudimentary first aid and medical supplies. Tools like small crank or gasoline generators or an all weather radio are good too.

Depending on where you live, you'll need to modify the amount depending on the infrastructure. If you live in the Australian Outback, you'll probably want a year's supply or more.

 

But the fact is, a major economic collapse or electrical grid collapse would NOT send us back to the dark ages. There would not be gangs roaming through the streets, there would not be mutants, there would not be armies of looters in leather jackets with punk hair cuts and chains whipping around.

Life of course, would be total shit. However, let's not forget. THE WORLD IS FULL OF AREAS WHERE PEOPLE HAVE NO ELECTRICITY OR INFRASTRUCTURE!

-Somalia is a terrible place to live, full of bandit and chaos. It is however, not the post-apocalyptic nightmare land everyone thinks the 'doomsday' would be. 

-Many parts of rural China don't have access to 24/7 electricity or running water. These isolated villages manage to survive without falling into chaos because they DO have links to a centralized government

-Many parts of Africa don't have 24/7 electricity or running water. They are plagued by bandits and warlords. Some warlords use child soldiers to fight each other. Yet people still manage to live their lives.

Humans in various parts of the world have lived through terrible, horrible unrest, famine, plagues and other things. Some of them are living through that RIGHT NOW. They survived. My own family survived through terrible authoritarian crises in the 50's. This obsession with doomsday prepping is pretty ridiculous to anyone who survived through such tragedies.

-There are no events that knock out of all the world, forever. Central governments exist, and they can and have existed without power or modern day conveniences. Even if we did suffer an EMP, local and federal governments could still communicate by messenger, laws can be enforced by men with guns on horse or foot. Soldier and police aren't going to disappear. Chains of command will slow down..but heck, Britian managed a worldwide empire without even the aid of the telegraph.

-The world isn't isolated. Even if the United States suffers a major terrorist attack or ecological disaster, other countries are around to help. Canada, Mexico, Britain, even China and Russia have agencies interested in philantrophy and humanitarian aid. 

-Anything truly catastrophic is indefensible. A nuclear attack, alien invasion, or invasion by a hostile, militarily superior government would be impossible to resist. The only way to live would just be luck. It is unlikely your favorite doomsday vehicle would survive a confrontation with an MBT or helicopter gunship. THere's a large chance all your 'preps' would be for nothing due to a stroke of being on someone's target list.

Finally

-PREPPING could land you into more trouble than an actual doomsday! Running around in isolated woods with firearms? Spending lots of money on crazy offroad vehicles? Constructing 'bugout' shelters with out following building codes for wiring, safety and fire?  These are all hazards. What happens if the doomsday structure you built collapses on you? I've seen more than my share of accidents from people actually doing these preps by playing around with firearms, vehicles and doing construction tasks they just can't handle.

We live in a society. If doomsday prepping is something you're really worried about, it's better to learn these skills in a professional or at least amateur hobby capacity than kind of pissing away all your effort in fear. Afraid of nuclear attacks? Get an engineering degree, or learn stonemasonry. Worried about looters? Learn to shoot from qualified instructors and join the local gun club. Worried about food? Start planting a garden. Worried about killer asteroids? Get a degree in rocketry or astronomy. You'll serve the world better by looking for killer asteroids and engineering rockets to destroy them than throwing your life savings into a hole in order to literally..live in a hole.

It's possible to learn skills and acquire tools that have DUAL uses for doomsday and today. You need to live for today AND tomorrow. And if you're worried about doomsday, get involved in solutions to prevent it...don't just be a douche and be like "I got mine". 

 

 

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September 2, 2013 6:27:53 AM from Little Tiny Frogs Forums Little Tiny Frogs Forums

Sorry but you are way off in your assessment of the possibilities of what 'could' happen.   Here is why...

First you obviously pick a computer hack or virus as your primary threat... just not possible.   Someone would have to hit so many different secure systems all at the same time including hacking through firewalls at the same time.   Today though, most of those systems are much better protected... plus they are all now pretty much set with protocols that will shut down generators and grids when a threat or out of spec condition exists to insure no damage occurs.

One thing that surprised me was you gave the economic collapse scenario barely any possible chance...  you are more wrong than you realize because you are not looking at it from one very important perspective....

First, a just outright collapse on its own is not probable... HOWEVER, were countries to call in our debts it could force a collapse albeit slower than a quick and full drop suddenly.   But even that is not what I am talking about when I say a collapse is extremely possible...

The part you are missing is this:    Were this country or the world to experience a major event, natural, terrorist or otherwise that impacted a large number of cities at once, the economy would collapse overnight.

For example:   There are an unknown number of MISSING nuclear weapons around the world.   All it would take is for ONE, yes ONE terrorist to get a nuclear weapon into ONE American city and detonate it.   Does NOT matter which city.   Why?   Because every other city will EMPTY out in fear.   AND with no where to go, no survival planning or gear and no organized evacuation plan, the economy will collapse within days because all those people will be totally and completely fearful of returning to a city not knowing if their place is next on the nuke bomb strike list...

Another example is based on a EMP happening.   Again the same thing... people WILL panic when the lights, water and food systems go offline... result:  1) economic collapse.  2) mass evacuations from cities.  3) chaos.

Finally you give the Sun sending a flare our way as a minimal possibility...  Again you are wrong... why is that?  Because on July 30th 2013 we had a HUGE portion of the sun, 1/3 of it or so, blow out literally and head our way.   The government kept it quiet until AFTER it missed us by a small 2 degree margin.  News was only released 5 days after it occurred.....    Look it up.. you can still find the videos of the actual sun showing the missing section.   Had it hit us, EMP would have been the least of our worries..

But there again, economic collapse would occur.

I state all this from a perspective that most of you do not have..  I AM in the know.  I do have access to data most of you do not.  And although I am not expecting something to occur right this second nor am I living my life around something happening, I can tell you that things ARE changing and not for the better.

Right now, the most realistic and possible occurrences are as follows:   Natural event (sunspots and solar flares, earthquake/volcano etc), terrorist attack using WMD in USA, Incoming space event (asteroid, comet not yet found or seen), some other earth bound event none of us have even figured on.. (Fukashima nuclear plant type event, some change in the earths magnetic field (notice how the SUN has become HOTTER feeling on your skin) or some change in the core of the earth).

ALL of those would cause economic collapses.    Most of those we can do nothing about.. and most of those could happen at any time.   Right now we are in a higher percentage of possibly having some event because of the suns cycle, the Earth now passing through the ecliptic plane of the universe and some other things like the fact our magnetic shield is dramatically weakening now.

Again, WILL something happen?   No one knows that answer.  But COULD something happen?  Yes and right now we are in an increased risk period.

But as for your virus or hack of systems doing this?   No way.  Perhaps they could impact a part of some grid but it is now impossible to bring down the entire thing.   And any part they do drop has redundent and protective systems now operational to stop it or reroute issues.   Add to that MOST businesses, and MANY civilians all own generators which would be used whereas with an EMP those would be dead.

BTW, EMP WOULD cause most cars that rely on brain boxes to be fried.  Only DIESEL engines will be able to run without them as long as they are not electronic ignition or electronic fuel injection.   I know because of my training and expertise in the U.S. Military....

BTW, a comment to the person who wrote that there would not be chaos, roaming gangs, looters etc..  You are so wrong... Did you not see what happened in Katrina, in Sandy and in other events like those?   Imagine if EVERY city were affected in such a manner....    When people get hungry and thirsty they WILL DO ANYTHING TO SURVIVE.   You can live with your head in the sand like many do.   But WHEN the day comes that this planet does experience a major event, those who have not taken any precautions will be the first to go.   Cities WILL empty out when the food is gone.   Gangs WILL form.   People will migrate and try to find safe zones.  And people like me and others will be sitting here saying "told ya so".

Someday, maybe not tomorrow or the next day.. heck maybe not even in our lifetime, there WILL be an event.  There has been in the past many times, there will be again NO DOUBT.

We live on a small planet in the midst of one universe that exists in an almost infinite number of universes.   We do not have a clue what is out there nor any clue about the dangers that exist to this planet.. things we probably cannot even fathom....   Yes, there WILL be some events.  But there is no reason to panic, live your life worried about them nor anything else.

What you CAN do is make some easy and basic emergency plans, store a month or so of food and water, batteries and other items you may need to survive during ANY disaster and have a plan on what to do during one.   Other than that, there is not much else to do unless you want to take the time and money to invest in an underground bunker and other major preps... stuff that even if YOU do not use it in your lifetime, perhaps your kids or their kids will have occasion to do...

Those of you just denying everything really need to get with reality.. we are not immune on this planet... and nature and the universe, I am sure, has a few surprises in store....

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September 2, 2013 9:20:35 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Quoting MalakieUSN,
I state all this from a perspective that most of you do not have.. I AM in the know. I do have access to data most of you do not.

Of course you are....

 

....and they all moved away from him on the Group 'W' bench until he said "...and creatin' a disturbance..."

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September 2, 2013 9:42:12 AM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

Nice to be "in the know". So few of us are.

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September 2, 2013 10:34:10 AM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

Well, I don't have anything else to say except I love and care about you all very much, and I hope the next 365 days are your best yet.

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September 2, 2013 11:44:22 AM from Sins of a Solar Empire Forums Sins of a Solar Empire Forums

There are a number of doomsday scenarios (some of them very esoteric, but entirely real) that might tickle your morbid interest:

 

1) Cobalt/Zink 'dirty bomb': A such weapon in the wrong hands could theoretically be just as devastating than the world's entire arsenal of conventional thermonuclear weapons: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Cobalt_bomb     http://rense.com/general40/dooms.htm

 

2) Much like you describe, an EMP blackout, but delivered by means of nuclear explosion: http://indrus.in/blogs/2013/04/26/e-bomb_the_real_doomsday_weapon_24213.html

 

3) Soviet cold war-era doomsday devices:

 

Perimeter: This unbelievable Strangelove'esque doomsday weapons system is apparently not only real, but possibly still in existence and active: http://www.wired.com/politics/security/magazine/17-10/mf_deadhand?currentPage=all      http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Dead_Hand_(nuclear_war)

 

Doomday Ship: Unfortunately I can't find the link (there's a clip with that period's current leader waving a small model of the ship in a flask as if it were some sort of toy, scary stuff indeed) but the Soviets were at one point considering building a 'doomsday ship'. This large cargo ship would essentially be a gigantic bomb, patrolling the USSR coasts while scanning for signs of a nuclear attack on Soviet soil, in which case it would be detonated because "If communism has failed, there would be no reason for the world to survive." This weapon was never built, however.

 

 

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September 2, 2013 2:10:11 PM from Stardock Forums Stardock Forums

You do realize that not everyone who is online is lying right?   That some people might just actually be truthful....    Anyone can say anything anytime while online.   That does not mean that 100% are not truthful or not actually telling you factual information.

I stand by my remarks.  I DO have access to data and information that 99% of the people do not have.  Additionally, a project I am involved in has people who have even more access than I do to live and very specific data.

Although I am not able to post or quote specifically my 'sources', what I am telling you is truthful... it is up to you to believe or not.  If you read what I wrote, there is nothing outlandish or exaggerated.   I simply stated the facts from a perspective that, as I said, most people do not have or know.

Here is a question you can ponder on top of what I wrote....

If none of this information, if none of the speculation about E.L.E. events, if none of the speculation about something ever happening is bogus than why are most countries on this planet spending so much money building underground bunkers, underground highways, and underground vaults (arks)??

Just a couple examples:  Mt. Weather and NUMEROUS other locations in the U.S., the recently found and disclosed underground SECURED interstate highway that runs from Colorado to Washington D.C. and other parts AND the continued expansion and SUPPLY to this moment of these underground facilities?

Why are so many people WHO ARE in the know, why are so many well known business people and company owners investing in and building underground bunkers now?

A waste of money?   Or do they know something you do not?

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September 2, 2013 2:28:37 PM from WinCustomize Forums WinCustomize Forums

I'd suggest you keep your 1% to yourself before someone decides to let NCIS know about you.

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September 2, 2013 2:37:54 PM from Elemental Forums Elemental Forums

And love, peace and abundance to everyone as well!  Have A Nice Day!

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